Economy Heats Up

Affordability is expected to take a hit next year as home prices and interest rates continue to head up.

The upbeat real estate market news we received in 2013 presents some challenges for the year ahead. An influx of buyers last year helped strengthen housing appreciation, which in turn led to greatly improved consumer confidence. The result was 5.1 million home sales, the best year for real estate purchases since 2007.

But 2014 will be different, with sales volume gains expected to be small at best, because of rising interest rates and home prices, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says. But there's an upside, too: the continued growth in the economy, which, while modest, has stayed on track. The resulting addition of more than 2 million jobs each year should provide a boost to housing markets. On the commercial side, rising rent growth and declining vacancy rates bode well for the office, industrial, retail, and multifamily sectors.

Yun says lenders could promote stable markets next year as they look to purchase-money mortgage loans as their next big growth area to compensate for a shrinking body of business from refinances, which will drastically fall as interest rates rise.

Written by Robert Freedman @ Realtor Magazine

Home prices show signs of topping out

Home prices are showing signs of topping out: The S&P/Case-Shiller index posted its first month-over-month decline in 10 months on Tuesday.

The annual measure of home prices still increased 13.7% in November, but that was only narrowly better than the rise posted in October.

The housing recovery was one of the stronger aspects of the economy last year, boosting household wealth and home construction.

But with mortgage rates climbing steadily since hitting record lows in May, it's clear the housing recovery is starting to lose some steam.

"While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

But housing experts say that more modest price increases are probably a good thing for the housing market. The rapid increases of the last year are not sustainable, they said.

"Sellers used to seeing huge price gains month after month may feel some whiplash as that slows down," said Stan Humphries, chief economist for sales tracker Zillow. But more modest price increases mean "the housing market is still a long way from normal, but it's getting there."

The Case-Shiller index chronicles prices across the nation's 20 largest metropolitan areas. Fourteen of those markets posted double-digit percentage gains over the last year, but only nine posted any month-over-month gain.

The improvement in housing was driven by pent-up demand for home purchases, combined with lower unemployment and a drop in foreclosures. Mortgage rates have been climbing steadily of late but remain low by historical standards, making housing prices far more affordable than they were at the height of the bubble last decade.

National prices are still nearly 20% below peak levels reached in mid-2006, according to Case-Shiller.

Written by Chris Isidore @CNNMoney

Finding ways to help young adults make their first home purchases

Tough new underwriting standards stand in the way of many potential buyers in their 20s and 30s, but growing numbers of friends and relatives are stepping in to help.

Parents, grandparents and young adults know the problem only too well: Heavy student-debt loads, persistent employment troubles stemming from the recession, plus newly toughened mortgage underwriting standards are all standing in the way of vast numbers of potential first-time home buyers in their 20s and 30s.

But are there effective techniques that family members, friends, even employers can use to bridge the generational gap by offering a helping hand - without hurting their own finances in the process? You bet.

First, some sobering numbers:

•Citing Census Bureau data on homeownership by age, demographer Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting calculates that Americans who were 30 to 34 in 2012 - those born between 1978 and 1982 - had the lowest homeownership rate of any similarly aged group in recent decades, 47.9%. By contrast, Americans born between 1948 and 1957 had a 57.1% ownership rate by the time they hit the 30 to 34 bracket. This is despite record low mortgage rates and bumper crops of bargain-priced foreclosures and short sales.

•Debt-payment-to-income ratios increasingly are mortgage application killers for would-be first-timers. Adoption nationwide last month of a new federal 43% maximum debt-to-income ratio for "qualified mortgages" is particularly poorly timed for young buyers. Because of large student debts, which average $21,402 but sometimes balloon into six figures, they may not be able to meet the 43% standard for years.

Typically they're already paying out large amounts on credit cards, auto loans or leases and their student debt - about 30% of current monthly income for those ages 21 to 30 as of 2012, according to a new research report from research economist Gay Cororaton of the National Assn. of Realtors. Factoring in the monthly cost of a typical mortgage for an entry-level purchase, the debt-to-income ratio as of 2012 for these individuals exceeded 60%, Cororaton estimates. Even with a 5% increase in income per year, they will not be able to qualify under the 43% debt-to-income test until 2019.

That's a long time to postpone a purchase. Yet consumer research consistently finds that the overwhelming majority of Americans in their 20s and 30s would like to own a home, once they're able to put together the financial pieces to make it feasible.

So what are some of the solutions available to help bridge the gap? The most popular is also the oldest: Growing numbers of relatives are stepping in with gift money to help defray the down payment and closing costs - 27% of first-time buyers last year, according to one industry estimate.

Down payment gifts do not address the crucial debt-to-income ratio problem, but for young buyers who can get close to the 43% mark for conventional loans (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) or slightly higher at the more flexible FHA or VA, they can be extremely important.

Rules on gifts vary among funding sources, but there are some shared basics: The money cannot be disguised as a gift if it is actually a loan; there needs to be a formal gift letter that spells out the purpose of the gift and the specific transaction for which it is to be used; and the source of the funds and the capacity of the gift giver to provide the money need to be documented. For down-payment help outside the family tree, check out http://www.downpaymentresource.com.

But an increasingly important and fast-growing resource is turning the gift concept on its head: Rather than simply handing over their cash with no repayment arrangements, family members are becoming mini-lenders themselves.

With a little professional assistance, they are providing either second mortgages or first mortgages that are custom-designed to deal with whatever financial hurdles - including paying off student loans to reduce debt-to-income ratios - their young relatives are confronting. Properly structured, these loans provide annual returns to family members well in excess of money-market funds or bank deposits, and open the door to homeownership for their kin.

The largest player in the field, National Family Mortgage (www.nationalfamilymortgage.com), has structured and serviced more than $155 million of intra-family transactions in the last two years and is on track, according to founder and Chief Executive Tim Burke, to do $150 million in volume during 2014.

"There is a lot going on" in this field that can help entry-level buyers strapped with student-loan debt, Burke says.

Written By Kenneth R. Harney